← Grand Archive TCG - Constructed - Reginals Qualifier Event
Water Ravishing MillTier 1
at Grand Archive TCG - Constructed - Reginals Qualifier Event
decks
2
(8.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
6-3-1
overall winrate
65.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.7%
avg ELO +0.3 per match
expected value
53.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1341
· median 1341
· range 1274–1408
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1124
Q1 1219
Q3 1405
1563
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 13.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.1% | -4.7 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 8.7% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 50.8% | +0.8 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 8.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.7% | -1.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.7% | -11.7 |
| Fire Arcane | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.2% | +5.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.7% | +5.9 |
| Wind Crux Merlin | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
